South Africa is an attractive, relatively stable and mature market that offers
opportunities in data, network sharing and enterprise services despite
economic and sociopolitical challenges.
-
The Reserve Bank adopted a lower inflation target in 2025 as inflation remained benign,
averaging 3.2%.
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Interest rates eased throughout the year. The rand strengthened, supported by higher
commodity prices and improved investor sentiment, linked to fiscal and regulatory progress.
However, the currency remains exposed to global economic movements and trade tensions.
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While economic growth remained subdued, constrained by infrastructure challenges and a high
fiscal deficit, improvements are evident with Q4 GDP of 0.4% and 1.1% reported by StatsSA for
the year.
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MTN has the second-largest market share in a data-dominant and highly competitive
environment, where muted prepaid growth is exacerbated by the growing share
of
disposable income that is being spent on online gambling. Postpaid has
remained relatively resilient,
although MVNOs have continued to be a feature in the competitive and pricing environments.
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MTN maintained its position as the market’s best mobile network, securing the top ranking in
Q4 2025 according to the MyBroadband Network Quality Report. We also retained our place as
SA’s Best Voice Network for 2025.
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Ability to increase prices –
The regulatory environment enables operators to manage pricing to
remain competitive and recover escalating opex and capex requirements. We increased prices in
February 2025.
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5G remains an exciting
MT
and
LT
opportunity for growth, particularly FWA/HBB. Industrial
use cases show potential; handsets and coverage are the key dependencies for consumer use
cases.
-
Home –
The sector relies on the infrastructure of two operators. FWA is popular among fixed
operators, but FTTH connections are growing faster.
-
Fintech –
The country’s advanced banking sector poses challenges to the more rapid scaling of
fintech, however MTN is driving growth through compelling and niche offerings.
Nigeria is a market of significant scale and potential, supported by its young
population, rising digital adoption and growing demand for data and financial
services. The naira is more stable and stronger than it has been in recent years.
- Economic growth was 3.9% (2024: 3.4%).
- Headline inflation averaged 23.4% (2024: 33.2%), partly reflecting CPI rebasing.
Nonetheless,
opex remained pressured by elevated price levels.
- Reforms improved forex liquidity and supported private investment. Monetary policy remained
tight, keeping borrowing costs high.
- The naira held relatively steady, supported by targeted monetary and fiscal actions aimed at
restoring market confidence and encouraging capital flows.
- Fluctuating oil production and global prices continued to impact government revenue, fiscal
balances and market sentiment.
- MTN maintains a leading position in a two‑player‑dominated market with high data
consumption and resilient demand for voice services. Strong population growth and rising
smartphone penetration are driving accelerating digital connectivity.
- Ability to increase prices – Following extensive engagement, the regulator
approved
industry‑wide price adjustments in early 2025. These were necessary to support the
industry’s sustainability and ensure continued investment in critical national infrastructure.
- Network investment – MTN more than doubled capex in 2025, boosting network
capacity,
service quality and resilience amid robust data growth.
- Home – The fixed and wireless HBB market remains nascent but fast‑growing.
We continue
to scale our HBB footprint through 5G FWA, MBB and FTTH deployments, improving
accessibility and affordability.
- Fintech – Competition remains strong from telcos, banks and over‑the‑top
(OTT)
operators. In 2025, we improved the quality and engagement of our wallet base while
expanding advanced services to support commercial momentum over the MT
and
LT.
MTN’s biggest fintech market presents an opportunity for greater uptake of
more advanced services. Moderated macro-challenges in 2025 (after 2024’s
elevated inflation and currency volatility) support improved consumer
purchasing power and investor confidence. MTN remains a significant
market power (SMP), a designation which includes greater regulatory
scrutiny.
- In 2025, inflation slowed to an average 14.6% from 22.9% in 2024 and the cedi strengthened
by
40% against the dollar. It also gained on the rand. Interest rates eased. MTN’s assessment
that
Ghana’s economy was hyperinflationary came to an end on 30 June 2025.
- MTN is the market leader, with strong growth in data and fintech services. Since being
declared
an SMP, MTN Ghana attracts greater regulatory oversight and the requirement to implement
remedies.
- Ability to increase prices – As an SMP, MTN Ghana is required to seek
approval from the
regulator for price adjustments.
- 5G – Initially planning an exclusive single 5G provider, in February 2026
Ghana’s government
said it would allow operators to access 5G spectrum.
- Home – We see an opportunity to leverage our network to take part in this
segment.
- Fintech – The market leader, MTN MoMo, continues to grow its ecosystem.
MTN Ghana is the
leading Opco in growth in MoMo advanced services revenue, led by rising adoption of digital
payments and lending solutions. In late 2025, MTN launched an investment product that allows
customers to invest in mutual funds composed of Ghanaian stocks and bonds.
Under our new operating model, SEA comprises MTN operations in Uganda,
Rwanda, Zambia, South Sudan, Sudan and Liberia. This region represents
an exciting demographic opportunity, with a fast-growing, youthful
population and rising adoption of data, fintech and digital technologies.
Unfortunately, conflict in South Sudan and Sudan has led to a major
humanitarian crisis.
- In Uganda inflation was stable, averaging 3.6%. The shilling appreciated,
supported by
improved export receipts and a balance‑of‑payments surplus. In Rwanda,
economic growth was
sustained and inflation was contained: GDP growth was estimated at 7% – the same as the
annual average urban inflation, which has since edged higher.
- Zambia made progress in restoring macroeconomic stability under an
IMF‑supported
programme. Mining and agriculture helped lift GDP by approximately 3.8%, but inflation was
persistently high. Elections are due in August 2026.
- Despite high unemployment, SEA is a largely stable region. Conflict in Sudan and South
Sudan
has created a humanitarian crisis: millions of people are displaced, there is extreme food
insecurity and thousands have been killed.
- We are the market leader in Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan; #2 in Zambia and Liberia; and
#3 in Sudan. There is increasing activity from newer/smaller entrants in the markets.
Regulatory
interventions impacted some of our operations. Mobile termination rates (MTRs) were
reintroduced in Rwanda in August 2025, supporting our performance and helping to build a
more sustainable industry. In Uganda and Zambia, there were regulatory cuts to MTRs in 2025.
- Ability to increase prices – While there is scope to engage regulators on
price increases in some
markets, competitive pressure remains a key consideration. In 2025, we increased prices in
Zambia, Sudan and South Sudan.
- 5G –MTN launched Rwanda's first commercial 5G network in 2025, and we
continue the rollout
of 5G in Uganda and Zambia.
- Home – This remains a latent opportunity, with low penetration due to
affordability constraints,
device gaps and infrastructure. However, we are seeing good traction in Uganda through both
FTTH and FWA offerings.
- Fintech –MoMo growth is strong, but competition is stiff, with demands for
interoperability, price
regulation, and agent footprint expansion. Ongoing regulatory requirements remain key factors
being managed in the region, with the growth outlook underpinned by rapidly increasing
adoption
and usage of fintech services, including a strong uptake of advanced services.
Under our new operating model, this region comprises MTN operations in
Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Congo-Brazzaville. The region has a
youthful and growing population and GDP growth is strong. Operations are
highly regulated and are impacted by political tension. The region boasts
comparatively well-established fintech businesses and an increasing
uptake of advanced fintech services.
- In Côte d’Ivoire, GDP growth in 2025 was strong at 6.2%, supported by
increased cocoa
production, expanded oil and gas exploration and infrastructure investment. In
Cameroon, economic growth was moderate and in Benin it was
strong at 7.6%.
- Elections were held in Côte d’Ivoire in late 2025, with the president
winning a landslide fourth
term.
- Inflation and currencies are stable.
- MTN is the leader in three of the four markets (and #2 in Côte d’Ivoire), where mobile
uptake is
strong and fintech services are popular.
- Competition is intense and the regulatory environment for telecoms, digital and fintech is
complex and dynamic, but governments are also intent on increasing connectivity and digitising
societies. Data sovereignty and privacy are increasingly topical.
- Ability to increase prices – Amid economic, competitive and regulatory
pressures, increasing
prices is difficult.
- 5G – MTN offers 5G in Benin and Congo‑Brazzaville.
- Home – Investment in fibre is increasing, driving penetration as data
demand grows.
- Fintech – This sector continues to grow strongly, with increased adoption
and investment.
South Africa
Nigeria
Ghana
